Saturday, October 22, 2011

Republican Blueprint for One Party Rule

What they learned:
No universal draft.
No more Bork SCOTUS nominations: Stealth idealogues take the Fifth to promote corporate interests.
Plug like-minded judges in every state and local slot.
Every Republican marches in lockstep spouting the same talking points.

Blanket Media Disinformation/Dissemination:
Fox News
Rush Limbaugh
Glenn Beck
Sarah Palin
Little Green Footballs

FULL COURT SOBRIETY PRESS

Think Tanks
Heritage Foundation
American Enterprise Institute
Cato Institute (founded by
the Koch Bros.)

"Free Market" Enforcement
Deregulation
Trickle down theory (aka voodoo economics)
Privatized profits, socialized losses
Buy the politicians and write the legislation

Make the Laws-Establish Your Own Law School
Regents Law School-inventor of the Unitary Executive theory constitutionally supporting the Executive Branch as absolute monarchy (especially prevalent during George W. Bush reign)

Treat Americans like vampires except instead of wooden stakes drive fear into their hearts.

Protect dirty tricksters.  They have a distinguished lineage: Donald Segretti, Lee Atwater, Karl Rove, Roger Stone, and the media giants, James O'Keefe and Andrew Breitbart.  Who can forget Willie Horton?  Or John McCain's illegitimate black baby?  Or Hillary killing Vince Foster?

How to Get to One Party Rule

I have documents, incontrovertible proof, that there is a systematic, decades-old project to move the country to One Party Rule. It's been engineered by concentrated wealth and single-minded pursuit of the goal to funnel all public money into private hands under the mantle of "one hand washes the other".

In 2001, at the time Congress passed the Bush tax cuts (estimated cost $1.3 trillion and there was no talk of "pay as you go"), Grover Norquist, he of the "No Tax Increase" loyalty oath, famously crowed, "I don't want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub."

The plan is not to get rid of all government institutions and civil servants: the EPA, the NLRB (well, maybe that one), the Department of Education (that one, too), the Post Office (that one, too), teachers, firemen, policemen, sanitation workers, transportation workers, infrastructure programs, etc.

The idea is to defund these government institutions and civil servants so that government cannot work effectively; thereby demonstrating that government fails so we should sell off public space/assets to private entities. The Republicans don’t have to shut down government, they just have to starve it to get everyone to agree that it doesn’t function.

The next post will illustrate what lessons the Republicans learned and their resulting tactics.

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Someone Left the Cake Out in the Rain: the NYT fights against Occupy Wall Street under the guise of objective journalism

The New York Times is a paper of record. How it parses its language and tilts its coverage determines opinion.

Under the guise of "objective journalism", it shades its stories to fit its agenda.

Today Cara Buckley, a reporter for the NYT, wrote a story entitled, “For Some, Wall Street is Main Street.” The through line is that the protestors are uncivil, and have come to Wall Street to break plumbing and steal toilet paper. By reading more than half of the article, you’ll get the impression that the protesters aren’t spending money at the local merchants (and worse! They're corrupting our infants!).

The first 2/3s of the article quotes nice middle-class stereotypes, a female psychologist, Sheldon Silver (!), and women who can’t get their strollers through the streets. One woman said she had to shield her child’s eyes from, “the sight of women dancing topless in the park.”

I was there. I didn’t see anyone dance topless, or smoke pot, or even walk pooping dogs. This is a story obviously planted (by Bloomberg? He comes off as an easy-going guy letting the Times do his dirty work) as a way to discredit the meaning of the protest. A reader has to go more than 2/3 down in the story to find small business owners that are happy to sell to the protestors. I bought cheese sticks and apples for the occupants (don’t cry for me, one of the 99%):

A woman who tends the Dunkin’ Donuts kiosk a block from the site said coffee and doughnut consumption had jumped.

Yves Delva, a manager at a nearby Modell’s Sporting Goods, said sales had been brisk for sleeping bags, sweatshirts, hand warmers, sweatpants and goggles — that last item presumably bought to protect the eyes from pepper spray, which has been used by the police in response to the demonstrations.

Some residents said the noise, the crush of out-of-towners and the resulting delays were to be expected in one of Manhattan’s most famous neighborhoods.

Julie Menin, chairwoman of Community Board 1, which serves Lower Manhattan, said that the protesters had been responsive to concerns from the board and had agreed to stop drumming at 10 p.m. and to enforce quiet hours.

Contrary to the article's implications, protestors are not shutting down green space on a wide-spread, long-lived basis. The freedom of assembly has been stripped from our most magnificent public space, Central Park. The Great Lawn was shut down to demonstrators under the dubious reasoning that the grounds would be trampled on. Isn't that what happens in public parks? Our mayor has co-opted large areas of public parks (the Great Lawn is off-limits to most groups, except the Philharmonic—note the demographics?), which was particularly inconvenient for those protesting the Iraq War in 2003 and the Republican Convention in 2004.

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Apocalyptic, Unthinkable: How to Prevent a Second Great Depression

Events in the Eurozone are deteriorating at a rapid pace. Greece, which owes something like $500 billion and whose debt is 180% of GDP, is heading to default.

Spain and Italy are looking dicey. The credit ratings of several major French banks have been downgraded. Eurozone authorities have to act decisively now.

Dozens of European banks hold Greek bonds. The banks need to be recapitalized. If Greece defaults, its bonds and those of half dozen Eurozone countries will be worth a fraction of the value at which they are carried on banks’ books.

The problem with the Eurozone is that its currency, the euro, is centralized but each of its 17 member countries issues bonds and deals with their debt separately. If a weaker country (like Greece) cannot devalue the currency it uses, it can’t lower the cost of its debt.

The Eurozone isn’t prepared to deal with an economic crisis of this magnitude because its funding mechanisms are embryonic and each nation’s sovereignty is at stake. That doesn’t prevent the problems of one country from affecting the rest.

In 2008 when Lehman defaulted causing a global credit crunch, the U.S. coordinated rescues through the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, immediately lowering interest rates, which made it cheaper to pay off dollar-denominated debts and setting up facilities to provide liquidity to virtually insolvent institutions. However, it missed the boat by not requiring anything in return. Perhaps that’s why a new crisis erupted so quickly on the heels of the last. The collapse of 2008 was never resolved.

Experts are offering detailed solutions. As to whether they’re politically realistic, that remains to be seen. George Soros proposes:

#1: The 17 member countries must agree to a centralized European Union authority of its national economies. They must agree on a treaty to create a common treasury.

A centralized authority could issue Eurobonds to back the debt of its member nations. However, issuing collective Eurobonds requires the pooling of risk. In other words, a bond’s value is as strong as its creditworthiness. For the Eurobond to be financially viable, it must rely heavily on Germany. Germany has the strongest economy and credit rating, giving it the biggest seat at the table.

#2: There are two separate, major Eurozone financial mechanisms that can work together to staunch the bleeding: the European Central Bank (ECB) and the temporary lending facility, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

Using the most generous estimates, the size of the EFSF fund is a fraction of what is needed. Previous EFSF bailouts for Ireland, Portugal and Greece have reduced the size of the rescue fund (even with Germany’s recent support) to E440bn ($590bn).

#3: There should be a new intergovernmental agency to enable the EFSF to co-operate with the ECB:

The countries comprising the Eurozone must be put under ECB control in return for temporary guarantee and permanent recapitalization.

The ECB’s guarantees will allow member countries currently paying high interest rates to attract investors at sustainable levels. It could lower its discount rate for the troubled countries to refinance for about 1% during the emergency.

The EFSF would guarantee and recapitalize banks. In exchange, the countries involved would have to sign a contract that they will abide by ECB directives, which include maintaining their credit lines and loan portfolios while closely monitoring risks in their own accounts.

Another theory to prevent a bank meltdown and a run on sovereign debt from Peter Siegel of the Financial Times is to have the EFSF inject capital into banks and purchased distressed sovereign bonds on the open market, lowering borrowing costs that way.

Because the fund’s resources are inadequate, there are several ideas about how to stretch its money, mostly by leveraging (in other words, using the money to raise five times as much in debt):

#1: The EFSF guarantees losses of up to 20% on sovereign bonds rather than buying the bonds outright. This would increase the value of EFSF support 500% with no upfront payments.

#2: Speed up the creation of the EFSF’s replacement, the permanent European Stability Mechanism. ESM capital would come from member countries, which is more easily leveraged in the marketplace.

#3: Rely more on the ECB: turn the EFSF into a bank and allow it unlimited borrowing power. Or have the ECB continue purchasing sovereign debt but have the EFSF guarantee bond purchases, moving potential losses to the fund rather than the ECB.

#4: The EFSF could have creditors take a “voluntary” haircut of 50 cents on the euro. If Greece defaults, they would get far less. Lehman debt discharged in bankruptcy was worth 15 cents on the dollar.

The proponents I quote in this article agree that the only long-term way out of this debt crisis is economic growth, not austerity. When GDP increases, then there is money to make payments. Austerity programs cause massive unemployment, retard growth, diminish tax revenue, and reduce consumer demand. When all countries are on austerity programs at the same time, the recessionary effect is multiplied.

There are no guarantees that the Eurozone authorities can implement these solutions. The resolution of the Euro contradiction requires that each of the 17 member countries submit to a central authority, losing some of their sovereignty. Acting with urgency in the face of looming economic catastrophe can backfire politically. Some citizens are angry about the deep wage cuts, massive layoffs and large tax increases of an austerity program. Others are angry that they were frugal yet have to bail out their profligate neighbors. At any rate, the taxpayers end up footing the bill.

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

The Horrors of Austerity

The enforcement of austerity in the Eurozone (and the covert concessions here) are taking a horrendous toll that can’t be quantified. That which can be commodified indicates that austerity as a policy is as toxic as synthetic CDOs or the poisonous brew of beer and gasoline downed by a despairing Greek man whose business was ruined. For many Greeks, suicide seems like the only way out.

The most dramatic sign of Greece's pain is a surge in suicides.

Recorded suicides have roughly doubled since before the crisis to about six per 100,000 residents annually, according to the Greek health ministry and a charitable organization called Klimaka.

About 40% more Greeks killed themselves in the first five months of this year than in the same period last year, the health ministry says.

A suicide help line at Klimaka, the charitable group, used to get four to 10 calls a day, but "now there are days when we have up to 100," says a psychologist there, Aris Violatzis.

The caller often fits a certain profile: male, age 35 to 60 and financially ruined. "He has also lost his core identity as a husband and provider, and he cannot be a man any more according to our cultural standards," Mr. Violatzis says.

What I don’t understand is the idea that austerity will solve economic ills. The policy of higher taxes on everyone but the top 1% and deep spending cuts that only affect the lower 99% leads to a terrible outcome. Everyone is buried under debt, there are no jobs, therefore there is no income tax revenue, demand is nonexistent except for the need for necessities like food, shelter and health care:

Gross domestic product in the second quarter was down more than 7% from a year before, amid government spending cuts and tax increases that, combined, will add up to about 20% of GDP. Unemployment is over 16%. Crime, homelessness, emigration and personal bankruptcies are on the rise.

The weaker countries in the Eurozone are “contaminating” the so-called stronger economies. Remember when Paulson/Bernarke said the subprime disaster could be contained? They were sticking their fingers in an overflowing dike. Interbank lending has dried up, money market managers have pulled out, bank runs are plentiful and the PIIGs can’t raise any money without having to pony up more each day. What banks are holding what unwinding sovereign debt?

Wall Street runs on greed and fear, and fear is ruling the day. It is unknown how many credit default swaps are in play and what is the notional value involved because the CDS market is unregulated and no one has the faintest idea how much or how far.

It’s hilarious that the Tea Partiers complain about the restrictions of Dodd Frank or the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, as though the global financial system didn’t blow up in 2008 and there was no need to prevent that from happening again. Boy do they hate the equivalent of seat belts and motorcycle helmets. Until they hit a brick wall and go flying through the windshield or into open space. Wait’ll they get a load of real sovereign debt default instead of the blackmailing, Standard & Poor’s-driven downgrade.

Saturday, September 10, 2011

On the Waterfront: Jimmy Hoffa is dead. Long live James Jr.!

Unions are the villains in the Right’s narrative about what’s wrong with America. They are painted as lazy, incompetent, violent thugs. This is to distract from criminal enterprises masquerading as the "efficient markets tend to equilibrium" theory and the dismantling of the New Deal ethos.

Fox News
played
an edited video of James Hoffa Jr.’s Labor Day speech seeming to threaten violence against the Tea Party. They played it over and over again. The edits were obvious (check out the link, which contrasts Fox’s footage with ABC’s unedited film). The actual footage shows Hoffa rousing the troops to vote out the Congressmen who want to eliminate unions. Quoting from the transcript:

”Everybody here’s got to vote. If we go back, and keep the eye on the prize, let’s take these son of a bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong.”

It’s not only the Right that positions unions as thuggish. The International Longshore and Warehouse union shut down the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, joining its fellow union to protest the Port of Longview’s decision to use non-union labor at its new grain terminal.

The Journal of Commerce headlines its story on legitimate strike activity, “ILWU Protest Closes Ports of Seattle, Tacoma”. That’s a relatively objective headline. On the other hand, The New York Times headlines its story, “Union Dispute, Turning Violent, Spreads and Idles Ports.” Its lede focuses on the violence.

The eradication of unions and collective bargaining power would eliminate the already weakened position of labor versus management. Labor unions support the interests of the working and middle class. They are willing to fight for their candidates with blood and treasure. There is no other major source of support for like-minded politicians. The unions convinced white males to vote for Obama in 2008 because they said he promised to back them up. If the unions become toxic, only corporate money will influence politics.

The choice could not be clearer. Republicans want to eliminate public schools, public services, dismantle regulations protecting the safety of air, water, pharmaceuticals, the environment, Social Security, Medicare; indeed halt any government spending except for money released through tax cuts, which goes into the pockets of the rich. There is redistribution of income, all right, but not from the rich to the poor; rather, it’s the other way around. This is piracy, aka privatization.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

What Makes Sammy Learn? Robot Teachers Yes, Human Teachers No

Millions of dollars are at stake in education programs like “Race To the Top”. Determination of where federal money goes is highly dependent on student test scores. Whether a teacher is fired or not is dependent on student test scores. In NYC schools are graded from A-F and closed based on student test scores.

Yet according to a detailed
investigative report
, in a town (Kyrene, AZ) where millions were spent on technology in the classroom, student scores didn’t improve. And we’re talking about a lot of money:

Under a ballot initative approved in 2005, the district has invested roughly $33 million in such technologies [as laptops, big interactive screens and educational software.

Since 2005, scores in reading and math have stagnated in Kyrene, even as statewide scores have risen.

The same people who tout testing as the be-all and end-all dismiss the importance of Kyrene’s scores. Perhaps not surprisingly, many of those touting technology in the classroom have close ties to companies which produce these products. Some are major players in the administration:

Karen Cator, director of the office of educational technology in the United States Department of Education, said standardized test scores were an inadequate measure of the value of technology in schools. Ms. Cator, a former executive at Apple Computer, said that better measurement tools were needed, but in the meantime, schools knew what students needed.

Kyrene’s class sizes are increasing and teachers, who have not had a raise since 2008, make a median wage of $45,000. Many have second jobs to make ends meet. Money budgeted for technology cannot be used for any other purpose in the school district:

“We have Smart Boards in every classroom but not enough money to buy copy paper, pencils and hand sanitizers,” said Nicole Cates, a co-president of the Parent Teacher Organization at Kyrene de la Colina, an elementary school. “You don’t go buy a new outfit when you don’t have enough dinner to eat.”

Education budgets in areas other than technology have been slashed. The sole determinant of proof of student learning, test scores, so prized by educational reformers like Michele Rhee, does not show that technology without qualified teachers increases learning. There is no way to separate the effects of technology versus the effects of teaching on student learning.

But there are undoubtedly winners. The sellers of educational technology. They carefully track which school districts get federal funding and tax assessments for technology, then spring into action. The director of technology for the school district has decision-making power over spending those millions. Sometimes it’s used to replace that which is deemed “obsolete”. Kind of like “planned obsolescence”, where a household products company might add “X-Factor” to a detergent to shake up sales:

Last summer, the district paid $500,00 to CCS [Presentation Systems, a leading reseller of Smart Boards in Arizona] to replace ceiling-hung projectors in 400 classrooms. The alternative was to spend $100,000 to replace their aging bulbs, which Mr. Share [the director of technology at Kyrene] said were growing dimmer, causing teachers to sometimes have to turn down the lights to see a crisp image.

Mr. Dunham [a salesman for CCS] said the purchase made sense because new was better.

But Ms. Kirchoff, the president of the teachers’ association, is furious. “My projector works just fine,” she said, “Give me Kleenex, Kleenex, Kleenex!”

My advice to educational reformers who spout the wonders of unproven, high-cost, “sexy” technology at the expense of the rest education exercise some consistency in how they quantify the efficacy of reform. Are student scores important, or aren’t they? When faced with technology, do people in positions of power make decisions based on their intuition:

”My gut is telling me we’ve had growth,” said David K. Schauer, the superintendent [in Kyrene].

Or do they simply quantify teaching ability? That’s backwards. Technology is consistent, a fungible thing. Teachers are human beings, adaptive, social and capable of learning.

You better figure out how to educate future generations before you blow your wad on toys. No taxpayer will put out for a subsidy toward $100,000 x whatever for new bulbs. Unless they’ve been solely educated by technology salesmen and spokesmen.